The Digital Twin of the Emilia-Romagna Region
On behalf of LEPIDA and in collaboration with the Emilia-Romagna Region and ARPAE, TerrAria S.r.l. developed an innovative system called VERA (Virtualizing Emilia Romagna Air Quality), the Digital Twin of the Emilia-Romagna Region. The project is conceived as an advanced simulation and forecasting platform capable of dynamically representing the relationships between the territorial system, emissions and air quality. By integrating environmental data, traffic scenarios, mobility models and advanced Machine Learning (ML) technologies, VERA aims to support decision-making processes related to regional air quality policies. It enables the integrated assessment of planning measures on environment, mobility and energy within a single digital environment.
The Digital Twin of the Emilia-Romagna Region is not only an analytical tool, but a fully operational environment supporting multi-level governance, capable of linking regional policies, local planning instruments and environmental monitoring systems. The system VERA represents a concrete example of how such technologies can be applied at regional scale to support the implementation of complex sectoral policies.
VERA has been developed in alignment with the Regional Integrated Air Plan (PAIR 2030) of the Emilia-Romagna Region, the Pact for Work and Climate, the 2030 Agenda and the Emilia-Romagna Digital Agenda strategy “Data Valley Bene Comune”. It is part of the innovative, smart and sustainable transformation pathway of the regional system promoted by the Emilia-Romagna Digital Innovation Hub and funded through ERDF 2021–2027, strengthening the data-driven approach to territorial planning and to both ex-ante and ex-post evaluation of air quality remediation measures, while promoting integration between environmental monitoring systems and strategic regional planning processes.
The tool enables assessment of the impact of regional policies on traffic and road networks in relation to air quality across the entire Emilia-Romagna Region. It is designed for regional governance bodies and sector experts, supporting decision-making processes through synthetic indicators and comparative scenario analysis. This architecture enables analysts and policymakers to explore cause–effect relationships between mobility patterns, emission dynamics and atmospheric conditions.
The model allows the construction of customised scenarios through three main operational modes:
- Modification of traffic data on the regional road network, with the possibility of directly adjusting vehicle flows to simulate changes in traffic scenarios and analyse associated emission effects;
- Definition of policies at municipal level, enabling the evaluation of measures aimed at reducing or modifying the circulating vehicle fleet in one or more municipalities, in line with local sustainable mobility planning instruments;
- Simulation of emission reductions, aimed at estimating the effects of decreased traffic-related emissions at municipal or inter-municipal scale.
The generated traffic scenarios provide detailed outputs of emissions and atmospheric pollutant concentrations, both in absolute and relative terms. Among the variables considered are nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5).
Emission calculations are based on the INEMAR methodology and disaggregate the different traffic-related emission components (hot emissions, cold-start emissions, evaporative emissions and wear-related emissions), including both linear and diffuse sources. Pollutant concentration estimates are derived from a model trained using Machine Learning techniques (Convolutional Neural Network).
Through the integration of emission estimation, traffic scenarios and Machine Learning algorithms, VERA enables virtualisation of the regional air–mobility system and allows ex-ante testing of the effectiveness of environmental policies and mobility plans. The integrated modelling framework facilitates the comparison of different intervention strategies, highlighting their potential impacts on emissions and air quality, It provides operational support for strategic planning and for evaluating air quality improvement measures.
THE ROLE OF TERRARIA
TerrAria was responsible for estimating pollutant emissions based on the Emilia-Romagna Region traffic model. It also developed the regional-scale pollutant concentration estimation model and designed and implemented the graphical user interface of the application.
